Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Malavan vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Malavan
Malavan
FT
1 – 1
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
7/4/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 32Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Malavan50%
×Draw29%
Esteghlal Mollasani21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malavan
1.27
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.72

Malavan creates 76% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

creates per match

Malavan
1.22
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Malavan
0.63
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Malavan or draw
79%
Malavan or Esteghlal Mollasani
71%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
50%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+
23%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals
72%
Malavan 2+ goals
36%
Malavan 3+ goals
14%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
51%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
16%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)
70%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.63 · 65 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.22 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Malavan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Malavan scores more
50%
level
29%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
21%

Malavan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Malavan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malavan vs Esteghlal Mollasani

Malavan and Esteghlal Mollasani drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Bandar-e-Anzalī.