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Malavan vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Malavan
Malavan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
9/27/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 6Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Malavan48%
×Draw29%
Esteghlal Khuzestan23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malavan
1.27
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.79

Malavan creates 61% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 56 away

creates per match

Malavan
1.09
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.63

allows per match

Malavan
0.95
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.46

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Malavan or draw
77%
Malavan or Esteghlal Khuzestan
71%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
52%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+
22%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals
72%
Malavan 2+ goals
36%
Malavan 3+ goals
14%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
55%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
19%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)
67%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.09 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.63 + Malavan defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Malavan scores more
48%
level
29%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
23%

Malavan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Malavan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malavan vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

Malavan beat Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Bandar-e-Anzalī.