Malavan 1–1 Aluminium Arak: Result & Stats

Malavan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aluminium Arak

12/27/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 14Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Malavan40%

×Draw32%

Aluminium Arak28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalavanExpected goals in this matchAluminium Arak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.83

Malavan

1.06

Aluminium Arak

0.83

Malavan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 86 away

1.09

creates per match

0.71

0.95

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Malavan

1.09

Aluminium Arak

0.71

allows per match

Malavan

0.95

Aluminium Arak

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Aluminium Arak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Malavan or draw

72%

Malavan or Aluminium Arak

68%

Draw or Aluminium Arak

60%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+

16%

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals

65%

Malavan 2+ goals

29%

Malavan 3+ goals

9%

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

56%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

20%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)

59%

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.09 + Aluminium Arak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Aluminium Arak attack 0.71 + Malavan defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Malavan scores more

40%

level

32%

Aluminium Arak scores more

28%

Malavan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Malavan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff