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Malanti Chiefs vs Tambankulu Callies — Premier League 2020

Malanti Chiefs
Malanti Chiefs
FT
0 – 4
Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
8/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Killarney Sports Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Malanti Chiefs37%
×Draw29%
Tambankulu Callies34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malanti Chiefs
1.15
Tambankulu Callies
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

creates per match

Malanti Chiefs
0.77
Tambankulu Callies
0.74

allows per match

Malanti Chiefs
1.42
Tambankulu Callies
1.52

finishing

Malanti Chiefs+0.00on par
Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malanti Chiefs ↓

Tambankulu Callies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malanti Chiefs or draw
66%
Malanti Chiefs or Tambankulu Callies
71%
Draw or Tambankulu Callies
63%

Winning margin

Malanti Chiefs wins by 2+
15%
Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Malanti Chiefs 1+ goals
68%
Malanti Chiefs 2+ goals
32%
Malanti Chiefs 3+ goals
11%
Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
66%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
29%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Malanti Chiefs (draw refunded)
52%
Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malanti Chiefs at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.42 · 43 matches

Tambankulu Callies away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malanti Chiefs attack 0.77 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tambankulu Callies attack 0.74 + Malanti Chiefs defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Malanti Chiefs scores more
37%
level
29%
Tambankulu Callies scores more
34%

Malanti Chiefs at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Malanti Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malanti Chiefs vs Tambankulu Callies

Tambankulu Callies beat Malanti Chiefs 4-0 in Premier League on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Killarney Sports Field in Piggs Peak.