Malanti Chiefs 0–1 Milling Hotspurs: Result & Stats

Malanti Chiefs

FT

0 – 1

Milling Hotspurs

8/4/2021

Premier League · Round 22Killarney Sports Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Malanti Chiefs35%

×Draw29%

Milling Hotspurs36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malanti ChiefsExpected goals in this matchMilling Hotspurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.13

Malanti Chiefs

1.10

Milling Hotspurs

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

0.77

creates per match

0.83

1.42

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Malanti Chiefs

0.77

Milling Hotspurs

0.83

allows per match

Malanti Chiefs

1.42

Milling Hotspurs

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malanti Chiefs+0.00on par

Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malanti Chiefs ↓

Milling Hotspurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Malanti Chiefs or draw

64%

Malanti Chiefs or Milling Hotspurs

71%

Draw or Milling Hotspurs

65%

Winning margin

Malanti Chiefs wins by 2+

14%

Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Malanti Chiefs 1+ goals

67%

Malanti Chiefs 2+ goals

30%

Malanti Chiefs 3+ goals

10%

Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals

68%

Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals

31%

Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Malanti Chiefs (draw refunded)

49%

Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malanti Chiefs at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.42 · 43 matches

Milling Hotspurs away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malanti Chiefs attack 0.77 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.10

Milling Hotspurs attack 0.83 + Malanti Chiefs defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Malanti Chiefs scores more

35%

level

29%

Milling Hotspurs scores more

36%

Milling Hotspurs at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Milling Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff