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Malanti Chiefs vs Manzini Sea Birds — Premier League 2020

Malanti Chiefs
Malanti Chiefs
FT
1 – 1
Manzini Sea Birds
Manzini Sea Birds
5/29/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Killarney Sports Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Malanti Chiefs33%
×Draw27%
Manzini Sea Birds40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malanti Chiefs
1.14
Manzini Sea Birds
1.28

Manzini Sea Birds creates 12% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 85 away

creates per match

Malanti Chiefs
0.77
Manzini Sea Birds
1.14

allows per match

Malanti Chiefs
1.42
Manzini Sea Birds
1.51

finishing

Malanti Chiefs+0.00on par
Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malanti Chiefs ↓

Manzini Sea Birds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Malanti Chiefs or draw
60%
Malanti Chiefs or Manzini Sea Birds
73%
Draw or Manzini Sea Birds
67%

Winning margin

Malanti Chiefs wins by 2+
13%
Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Malanti Chiefs 1+ goals
68%
Malanti Chiefs 2+ goals
32%
Malanti Chiefs 3+ goals
11%
Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals
72%
Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals
37%
Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Malanti Chiefs (draw refunded)
45%
Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malanti Chiefs at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.42 · 43 matches

Manzini Sea Birds away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malanti Chiefs attack 0.77 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.14

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.14 + Malanti Chiefs defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Malanti Chiefs scores more
33%
level
27%
Manzini Sea Birds scores more
40%

Manzini Sea Birds at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manzini Sea Birds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malanti Chiefs vs Manzini Sea Birds

Malanti Chiefs and Manzini Sea Birds drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Killarney Sports Field in Piggs Peak.