Malanti Chiefs 1–0 Ezulwini United: Result & Stats

Malanti Chiefs

FT

1 – 0

Ezulwini United

3/1/2026

Premier League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Malanti Chiefs28%

×Draw29%

Ezulwini United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malanti ChiefsExpected goals in this matchEzulwini United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.26

Malanti Chiefs

0.95

Ezulwini United

1.26

Ezulwini United creates 33% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 41 away

0.77

creates per match

1.10

1.42

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Malanti Chiefs

0.77

Ezulwini United

1.10

allows per match

Malanti Chiefs

1.42

Ezulwini United

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malanti Chiefs+0.00on par

Ezulwini United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malanti Chiefs ↓

Ezulwini United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Malanti Chiefs or draw

57%

Malanti Chiefs or Ezulwini United

71%

Draw or Ezulwini United

72%

Winning margin

Malanti Chiefs wins by 2+

10%

Ezulwini United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Malanti Chiefs 1+ goals

61%

Malanti Chiefs 2+ goals

25%

Malanti Chiefs 3+ goals

7%

Ezulwini United 1+ goals

72%

Ezulwini United 2+ goals

36%

Ezulwini United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Malanti Chiefs (draw refunded)

39%

Ezulwini United (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malanti Chiefs at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.42 · 43 matches

Ezulwini United away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malanti Chiefs attack 0.77 + Ezulwini United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ezulwini United attack 1.10 + Malanti Chiefs defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Malanti Chiefs scores more

28%

level

29%

Ezulwini United scores more

43%

Ezulwini United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ezulwini United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff