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Malanti Chiefs vs Black Swallows — Premier League 2020

Malanti Chiefs
Malanti Chiefs
FT
0 – 0
Black Swallows
Black Swallows
5/22/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malanti Chiefs44%
×Draw27%
Black Swallows29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malanti Chiefs
1.39
Black Swallows
1.07

Malanti Chiefs creates 30% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

creates per match

Malanti Chiefs
0.77
Black Swallows
0.73

allows per match

Malanti Chiefs
1.42
Black Swallows
2.00

finishing

Malanti Chiefs+0.00on par
Black Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malanti Chiefs ↓

Black Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Malanti Chiefs or draw
71%
Malanti Chiefs or Black Swallows
73%
Draw or Black Swallows
56%

Winning margin

Malanti Chiefs wins by 2+
21%
Black Swallows wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Malanti Chiefs 1+ goals
75%
Malanti Chiefs 2+ goals
40%
Malanti Chiefs 3+ goals
16%
Black Swallows 1+ goals
66%
Black Swallows 2+ goals
29%
Black Swallows 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Malanti Chiefs (draw refunded)
60%
Black Swallows (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malanti Chiefs at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.42 · 43 matches

Black Swallows away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malanti Chiefs attack 0.77 + Black Swallows defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Black Swallows attack 0.73 + Malanti Chiefs defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Malanti Chiefs scores more
44%
level
27%
Black Swallows scores more
29%

Malanti Chiefs at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Malanti Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malanti Chiefs vs Black Swallows

Malanti Chiefs and Black Swallows drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.