Malaga W 3–1 Sevilla W: Result & Stats

Malaga W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sevilla W

11/21/2018

Primera División Femenina · Round 10Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol (Málaga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malaga W38%

×Draw23%

Sevilla W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malaga WExpected goals in this matchSevilla W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

Malaga W

1.60

Sevilla W

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 118 away

1.33

creates per match

1.01

2.20

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Malaga W

1.33

Sevilla W

1.01

allows per match

Malaga W

2.20

Sevilla W

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga W+0.00on par

Sevilla W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga W ↓

Sevilla W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Malaga W or draw

62%

Malaga W or Sevilla W

77%

Draw or Sevilla W

62%

Winning margin

Malaga W wins by 2+

19%

Sevilla W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Malaga W 1+ goals

80%

Malaga W 2+ goals

47%

Malaga W 3+ goals

22%

Sevilla W 1+ goals

80%

Sevilla W 2+ goals

47%

Sevilla W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Malaga W (draw refunded)

50%

Sevilla W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Sevilla W away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga W attack 1.33 + Sevilla W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sevilla W attack 1.01 + Malaga W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Malaga W scores more

38%

level

23%

Sevilla W scores more

38%

Malaga W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Malaga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff