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Malaga W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Malaga W
Malaga W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
1/13/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 17Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol (Málaga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malaga W28%
×Draw22%
Real Sociedad W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga W
1.40
Real Sociedad W
1.93

Real Sociedad W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 119 away

creates per match

Malaga W
1.33
Real Sociedad W
1.65

allows per match

Malaga W
2.20
Real Sociedad W
1.46

finishing

Malaga W+0.00on par
Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga W ↓

Real Sociedad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Malaga W or draw
50%
Malaga W or Real Sociedad W
78%
Draw or Real Sociedad W
72%

Winning margin

Malaga W wins by 2+
12%
Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Malaga W 1+ goals
75%
Malaga W 2+ goals
41%
Malaga W 3+ goals
17%
Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
85%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
57%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Malaga W (draw refunded)
36%
Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga W attack 1.33 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Malaga W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Malaga W scores more
28%
level
22%
Real Sociedad W scores more
50%

Real Sociedad W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malaga W vs Real Sociedad W

Real Sociedad W beat Malaga W 3-1 in Primera División Femenina on January 13, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol (Málaga).