Malaga W 0–3 Real Betis W: Result & Stats

Malaga W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Real Betis W

9/23/2018

Primera División Femenina · Round 3Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol (Málaga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malaga W41%

×Draw23%

Real Betis W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malaga WExpected goals in this matchReal Betis W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.62

Malaga W

1.72

Real Betis W

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 104 away

1.33

creates per match

1.03

2.20

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Malaga W

1.33

Real Betis W

1.03

allows per match

Malaga W

2.20

Real Betis W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga W+0.00on par

Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga W ↓

Real Betis W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Malaga W or draw

64%

Malaga W or Real Betis W

77%

Draw or Real Betis W

59%

Winning margin

Malaga W wins by 2+

21%

Real Betis W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Malaga W 1+ goals

82%

Malaga W 2+ goals

51%

Malaga W 3+ goals

25%

Real Betis W 1+ goals

80%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

48%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Malaga W (draw refunded)

53%

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga W attack 1.33 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.72

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + Malaga W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malaga W scores more

41%

level

23%

Real Betis W scores more

36%

Malaga W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malaga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malaga W vs Real Betis W

Real Betis W beat Malaga W 3-0 in Primera División Femenina on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol (Málaga).

Malaga W vs Real Betis W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Malaga W vs Real Betis W