Malaga W 4–2 Fundacion Albacete W: Result & Stats

Malaga W

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Fundacion Albacete W

3/31/2019

Primera División Femenina · Round 26Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol (Málaga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malaga W43%

×Draw22%

Fundacion Albacete W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malaga WExpected goals in this matchFundacion Albacete W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.72

Malaga W

1.91

Fundacion Albacete W

1.72

Malaga W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

1.33

creates per match

1.24

2.20

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Malaga W

1.33

Fundacion Albacete W

1.24

allows per match

Malaga W

2.20

Fundacion Albacete W

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga W+0.00on par

Fundacion Albacete W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga W ↓

Fundacion Albacete W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Malaga W or draw

65%

Malaga W or Fundacion Albacete W

78%

Draw or Fundacion Albacete W

57%

Winning margin

Malaga W wins by 2+

23%

Fundacion Albacete W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Malaga W 1+ goals

85%

Malaga W 2+ goals

57%

Malaga W 3+ goals

30%

Fundacion Albacete W 1+ goals

82%

Fundacion Albacete W 2+ goals

51%

Fundacion Albacete W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Malaga W (draw refunded)

55%

Fundacion Albacete W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Fundacion Albacete W away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.48 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga W attack 1.33 + Fundacion Albacete W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.91

Fundacion Albacete W attack 1.24 + Malaga W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Malaga W scores more

43%

level

22%

Fundacion Albacete W scores more

35%

Malaga W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Malaga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff