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Malaga W vs Barcelona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Malaga W
Malaga W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Barcelona W
Barcelona W
12/22/2018Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 15Estadio Francisco Romero (Málaga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malaga W8%
×Draw13%
Barcelona W79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga W
0.84
Barcelona W
2.95

Barcelona W creates 251% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 119 away

creates per match

Malaga W
1.33
Barcelona W
3.70

allows per match

Malaga W
2.20
Barcelona W
0.34

finishing

Malaga W+0.00on par
Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga W ↓

Barcelona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–210%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Malaga W or draw
21%
Malaga W or Barcelona W
87%
Draw or Barcelona W
92%

Winning margin

Malaga W wins by 2+
2%
Barcelona W wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Malaga W 1+ goals
57%
Malaga W 2+ goals
21%
Malaga W 3+ goals
5%
Barcelona W 1+ goals
95%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
79%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Malaga W (draw refunded)
9%
Barcelona W (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 3.70, concedes 0.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga W attack 1.33 + Barcelona W defence 0.34 → ÷2 → 0.84

Barcelona W attack 3.70 + Malaga W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Malaga W scores more
8%
level
13%
Barcelona W scores more
79%

Barcelona W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Malaga W 0–4 Barcelona W

Barcelona W beat Malaga W 4-0 in Primera División Femenina on December 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Romero (Málaga).