Malaga W 0–2 Athletic Club W: Result & Stats

Malaga W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Athletic Club W

12/6/2018

Primera División Femenina · Round 12Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol (Málaga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malaga W33%

×Draw23%

Athletic Club W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malaga WExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.71

Malaga W

1.44

Athletic Club W

1.71

Athletic Club W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

1.33

creates per match

1.21

2.20

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Malaga W

1.33

Athletic Club W

1.21

allows per match

Malaga W

2.20

Athletic Club W

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga W+0.00on par

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga W ↓

Athletic Club W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Malaga W or draw

56%

Malaga W or Athletic Club W

77%

Draw or Athletic Club W

67%

Winning margin

Malaga W wins by 2+

15%

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Malaga W 1+ goals

76%

Malaga W 2+ goals

42%

Malaga W 3+ goals

18%

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

82%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

51%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Malaga W (draw refunded)

42%

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Athletic Club W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga W attack 1.33 + Athletic Club W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Athletic Club W attack 1.21 + Malaga W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Malaga W scores more

33%

level

23%

Athletic Club W scores more

44%

Athletic Club W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Athletic Club W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff