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Malaga vs Reus — Segunda División 2018

Malaga
Malaga
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Reus
Reus
1/6/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 20La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Malaga47%
×Draw32%
Reus21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.14
Reus
0.65

Malaga creates 75% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 21 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.17
Reus
0.38

allows per match

Malaga
0.91
Reus
1.10

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
79%
Malaga or Reus
68%
Draw or Reus
53%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
20%
Reus wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
68%
Malaga 2+ goals
32%
Malaga 3+ goals
11%
Reus 1+ goals
48%
Reus 2+ goals
14%
Reus 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
69%
Reus (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Reus away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Reus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Reus attack 0.38 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Malaga scores more
47%
level
32%
Reus scores more
21%

Malaga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaga 0 – 3 Reus

Reus beat Malaga 3-0 in Segunda División on January 6, 2019.

The match was played at La Rosaleda in Malaga.