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Malaga vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Malaga
Malaga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
10/21/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Malaga50%
×Draw29%
Real Madrid II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.27
Real Madrid II
0.72

Malaga creates 76% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.26
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Malaga
0.47
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
79%
Malaga or Real Madrid II
71%
Draw or Real Madrid II
50%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
23%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
72%
Malaga 2+ goals
36%
Malaga 3+ goals
14%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
51%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
16%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
70%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.26 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Malaga defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Malaga scores more
50%
level
29%
Real Madrid II scores more
21%

Malaga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Malaga 0–0 Real Madrid II

Malaga and Real Madrid II drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.