Malaga 2–0 Racing Ferrol: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Racing Ferrol

David Larrubia 39'

Julen Lobete 9'

3/22/2025

Segunda División · Round 32Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Malaga50%

×Draw28%

Racing Ferrol22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchRacing Ferrol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.79

Malaga

1.36

Racing Ferrol

0.79

Malaga creates 72% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 42 away

1.17

creates per match

0.67

0.91

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Malaga

1.17

Racing Ferrol

0.67

allows per match

Malaga

0.91

Racing Ferrol

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Racing Ferrol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

78%

Malaga or Racing Ferrol

72%

Draw or Racing Ferrol

50%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

24%

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

74%

Malaga 2+ goals

39%

Malaga 3+ goals

16%

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

55%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

19%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

70%

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Malaga scores more

50%

level

28%

Racing Ferrol scores more

22%

Malaga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

David Larrubia

Malaga · M

8.2

Match Events

9'

Julen Lobete↳ Kevin Medina

12'

Juanpe

21'

Francisco De La Manzanara

39'

David Larrubia↳ Julen Lobete

44'

Jokin Gabilondo

46'

Puga← Gabilondo

46'

Manu Molina← Juanpe

61'

Y. Rahmani← Kevin Medina

67'

Nacho Sánchez← Aitor Buñuel

67'

Rober Correa← Héber Pena

70'

Chupe← Dioni

79'

Chiki← Fran Manzanara

82'

Álvaro Sanz Catalán

82'

Sangalli← Julen Lobete

85'

Carlos Puga

85'

Raúl Blanco← Naim García

85'

Eneko Jauregi← Álvaro Giménez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalagaRacing

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots13

2Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots13

6On Target1

2Off Target6

0Blocked6

8Inside Box8

0Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

425Total Passes387

342Accurate Passes317

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides6