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Malaga vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Malaga
Malaga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Melilla
Melilla
10/12/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Malaga64%
×Draw25%
Melilla10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.50
Melilla
0.42

Malaga creates 257% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.26
Melilla
0.37

allows per match

Malaga
0.47
Melilla
1.74

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
90%
Malaga or Melilla
75%
Draw or Melilla
36%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
35%
Melilla wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
78%
Malaga 2+ goals
44%
Malaga 3+ goals
19%
Melilla 1+ goals
34%
Melilla 2+ goals
7%
Melilla 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
86%
Melilla (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Melilla away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.26 + Melilla defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Melilla attack 0.37 + Malaga defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Malaga scores more
64%
level
25%
Melilla scores more
10%

Malaga at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Malaga 1–0 Melilla

Malaga beat Melilla 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.