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Malaga vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Malaga
Malaga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mallorca
Mallorca
Lombán 10' (pen)
L. Junior 29'
5/8/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 38Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Malaga38%
×Draw31%
Mallorca31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.04
Mallorca
0.92

Malaga creates 13% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 45 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.17
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Malaga
0.91
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
69%
Malaga or Mallorca
69%
Draw or Mallorca
62%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
15%
Mallorca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
65%
Malaga 2+ goals
28%
Malaga 3+ goals
9%
Mallorca 1+ goals
60%
Mallorca 2+ goals
23%
Mallorca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
55%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Malaga scores more
38%
level
31%
Mallorca scores more
31%

Malaga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
LombánMalagaMalaga · D
7.5

Match Events

8'
Alejandro BenítezGoal cancelled
10'
LombánPenalty
29'
L. Junior↳ Joan Sastre
46'
Luis Muñoz← José Matos
46'
Y. Rahmani← Jairo Samperio
46'
Cristo← Ismael Casas
51'
Cristo Romero
61'
Juande Rivas
64'
Cristian Rodríguez
65'
Joan Sastre
69'
S. Šćepović← Caye Quintana
72'
Jordi Mboula← L. Junior
79'
Jordi Mboula
79'
Febas← Antonio Sánchez
83'
Mini← Joaquín Muñoz
90'
Brian Olivan
90'
Raillo
90'
Álvaro Giménez← Abdón Prats

Possession

37%Malaga

Shots

10Malaga

Pass accuracy

46%Malaga

Statistics

MalagaMallorca
Overview
37%Possession63%
10Total Shots9
1Corners6
15Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots9
3On Target6
4Off Target3
3Blocked0
5Inside Box7
5Outside Box2
Passing
37%Possession63%
293Total Passes489
201Accurate Passes393
69%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls16
3Yellow Cards4
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Malaga vs Mallorca

Malaga and Mallorca drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 8, 2021.

Goals: Lombán (10' pen), L. Junior (29').

Mallorca controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.