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Malaga vs Ibiza — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Malaga
Malaga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ibiza
Ibiza
3/3/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Malaga44%
×Draw31%
Ibiza24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.12
Ibiza
0.74

Malaga creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.26
Ibiza
1.02

allows per match

Malaga
0.47
Ibiza
0.98

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Ibiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
76%
Malaga or Ibiza
69%
Draw or Ibiza
56%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
19%
Ibiza wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
67%
Malaga 2+ goals
31%
Malaga 3+ goals
10%
Ibiza 1+ goals
52%
Ibiza 2+ goals
17%
Ibiza 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
65%
Ibiza (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Ibiza away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.26 + Ibiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.12

Ibiza attack 1.02 + Malaga defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Malaga scores more
44%
level
31%
Ibiza scores more
24%

Malaga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Malaga 1–0 Ibiza

Malaga beat Ibiza 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.