Malaga 1–2 Extremadura: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Extremadura

4/13/2019

Segunda División · Round 34La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Malaga42%

×Draw29%

Extremadura29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchExtremadura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.99

Malaga

1.24

Extremadura

0.99

Malaga creates 25% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 42 away

1.17

creates per match

1.07

0.91

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Malaga

1.17

Extremadura

1.07

allows per match

Malaga

0.91

Extremadura

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Extremadura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

71%

Malaga or Extremadura

71%

Draw or Extremadura

58%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

19%

Extremadura wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

71%

Malaga 2+ goals

35%

Malaga 3+ goals

13%

Extremadura 1+ goals

63%

Extremadura 2+ goals

26%

Extremadura 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

59%

Extremadura (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Malaga scores more

42%

level

29%

Extremadura scores more

29%

Malaga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff