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Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna — Segunda División 2018

Malaga
Malaga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
7/8/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 39Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Malaga39%
×Draw29%
Deportivo La Coruna32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.16
Deportivo La Coruna
1.03

Malaga creates 13% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 85 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.17
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

allows per match

Malaga
0.91
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
68%
Malaga or Deportivo La Coruna
71%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna
61%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
69%
Malaga 2+ goals
32%
Malaga 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
55%
Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Malaga scores more
39%
level
29%
Deportivo La Coruna scores more
32%

Malaga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Malaga 1–0 Deportivo La Coruna

Malaga beat Deportivo La Coruna 1-0 in Segunda División on July 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.