Malaga 0–1 Cordoba: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cordoba

4/6/2025

Segunda División · Round 34Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Malaga48%

×Draw27%

Cordoba26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchCordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.98

Malaga

1.45

Cordoba

0.98

Malaga creates 48% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 64 away

1.17

creates per match

1.05

0.91

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Malaga

1.17

Cordoba

1.05

allows per match

Malaga

0.91

Cordoba

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

74%

Malaga or Cordoba

73%

Draw or Cordoba

52%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

24%

Cordoba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

77%

Malaga 2+ goals

42%

Malaga 3+ goals

18%

Cordoba 1+ goals

62%

Cordoba 2+ goals

26%

Cordoba 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

65%

Cordoba (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.73 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Cordoba defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cordoba attack 1.05 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Malaga scores more

48%

level

27%

Cordoba scores more

26%

Malaga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff