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Malaga vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Malaga
Malaga
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
2/4/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Malaga53%
×Draw28%
Atlético Baleares18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.34
Atlético Baleares
0.65

Malaga creates 106% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.26
Atlético Baleares
0.82

allows per match

Malaga
0.47
Atlético Baleares
1.42

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
82%
Malaga or Atlético Baleares
72%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
47%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
26%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
74%
Malaga 2+ goals
39%
Malaga 3+ goals
15%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
48%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
14%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
75%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.26 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Malaga defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Malaga scores more
53%
level
28%
Atlético Baleares scores more
18%

Malaga at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malaga vs Atlético Baleares

Malaga beat Atlético Baleares 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.