Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Malaga vs AD Ceuta FC — Segunda División 2018

Malaga
Malaga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
1/11/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Malaga49%
×Draw26%
AD Ceuta FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.53
AD Ceuta FC
1.01

Malaga creates 51% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 21 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.17
AD Ceuta FC
1.10

allows per match

Malaga
0.91
AD Ceuta FC
1.90

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
75%
Malaga or AD Ceuta FC
74%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
51%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
25%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
78%
Malaga 2+ goals
45%
Malaga 3+ goals
20%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
64%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
27%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
66%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.53

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.10 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Malaga scores more
49%
level
26%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
25%

Malaga at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malaga vs AD Ceuta FC

Malaga beat AD Ceuta FC 2-1 in Segunda División on January 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Malaga.