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Málaga II vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
5/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 33Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Málaga II58%
×Draw25%
Mancha Real17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
1.59
Mancha Real
0.71

Málaga II creates 124% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 79 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
83%
Málaga II or Mancha Real
75%
Draw or Mancha Real
42%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
32%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
80%
Málaga II 2+ goals
47%
Málaga II 3+ goals
21%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
51%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
16%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
78%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.59

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Málaga II scores more
58%
level
25%
Mancha Real scores more
17%

Málaga II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Málaga II vs Mancha Real

Málaga II beat Mancha Real 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.