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Málaga II vs Huracán Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
8 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
2/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 23Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Málaga II90%
×Draw7%
Huracán Melilla2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
3.35
Huracán Melilla
0.44

Málaga II creates 661% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 15 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
Huracán Melilla
0.20

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
Huracán Melilla
4.67

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
Huracán Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Huracán Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–17%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (15%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
98%
Málaga II or Huracán Melilla
93%
Draw or Huracán Melilla
10%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
75%
Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
96%
Málaga II 2+ goals
84%
Málaga II 3+ goals
63%
Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
36%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
7%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
97%
Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Huracán Melilla away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Huracán Melilla defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.35

Huracán Melilla attack 0.20 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Málaga II scores more
90%
level
7%
Huracán Melilla scores more
2%

Málaga II at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Málaga II 8 – 0 Huracán Melilla

Málaga II beat Huracán Melilla 8-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol in Málaga.