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Málaga II vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Almería II
Almería II
5/26/2024Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundCiudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Málaga II17%
×Draw22%
Almería II61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
0.83
Almería II
1.83

Almería II creates 120% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Málaga II
0.67
Almería II
2.67

allows per match

Málaga II
1.00
Almería II
1.00

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
39%
Málaga II or Almería II
78%
Draw or Almería II
83%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
5%
Almería II wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
56%
Málaga II 2+ goals
20%
Málaga II 3+ goals
5%
Almería II 1+ goals
84%
Almería II 2+ goals
54%
Almería II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
21%
Almería II (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Almería II away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 0.67 + Almería II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Almería II attack 2.67 + Málaga II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Málaga II scores more
17%
level
22%
Almería II scores more
61%

Almería II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Málaga II 1–2 Almería II

Almería II beat Málaga II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol in Málaga.