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Malaga City vs Motril — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Malaga City
Malaga City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Motril
Motril
9/25/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 3Campo Municipal Pepe Luís Bobadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Malaga City30%
×Draw29%
Motril41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga City
1.00
Motril
1.23

Motril creates 23% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 112 away

creates per match

Malaga City
0.96
Motril
1.18

allows per match

Malaga City
1.27
Motril
1.05

finishing

Malaga City+0.00on par
Motril+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga City ↓

Motril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malaga City or draw
59%
Malaga City or Motril
71%
Draw or Motril
70%

Winning margin

Malaga City wins by 2+
11%
Motril wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Malaga City 1+ goals
63%
Malaga City 2+ goals
26%
Malaga City 3+ goals
8%
Motril 1+ goals
71%
Motril 2+ goals
35%
Motril 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Malaga City (draw refunded)
42%
Motril (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga City at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Motril away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga City attack 0.96 + Motril defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Motril attack 1.18 + Malaga City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malaga City scores more
30%
level
29%
Motril scores more
41%

Motril at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Malaga City 1–2 Motril

Motril beat Malaga City 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Pepe Luís Bobadilla in Nerja.