Malaga City 2–3 Mijas Las Lagunas: Result & Stats

Malaga City

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Mijas Las Lagunas

12/1/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Ciudad Deportiva Torremolinos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Malaga City29%

×Draw28%

Mijas Las Lagunas43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malaga CityExpected goals in this matchMijas Las Lagunas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.28

Malaga City

1.01

Mijas Las Lagunas

1.28

Mijas Las Lagunas creates 27% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

0.96

creates per match

1.29

1.27

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Malaga City

0.96

Mijas Las Lagunas

1.29

allows per match

Malaga City

1.27

Mijas Las Lagunas

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga City+0.00on par

Mijas Las Lagunas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga City ↓

Mijas Las Lagunas →

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Malaga City or draw

57%

Malaga City or Mijas Las Lagunas

72%

Draw or Mijas Las Lagunas

71%

Winning margin

Malaga City wins by 2+

11%

Mijas Las Lagunas wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Malaga City 1+ goals

64%

Malaga City 2+ goals

27%

Malaga City 3+ goals

Mijas Las Lagunas 1+ goals

72%

Mijas Las Lagunas 2+ goals

37%

Mijas Las Lagunas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Malaga City (draw refunded)

41%

Mijas Las Lagunas (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Malaga City at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Mijas Las Lagunas away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Malaga City attack 0.96 + Mijas Las Lagunas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Mijas Las Lagunas attack 1.29 + Malaga City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Malaga City scores more

29%

level

28%

Mijas Las Lagunas scores more

43%

Mijas Las Lagunas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mijas Las Lagunas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malaga City vs Mijas Las Lagunas

Mijas Las Lagunas beat Malaga City 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Torremolinos in Torremolinos.

Malaga City vs Mijas Las Lagunas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Malaga City vs Mijas Las Lagunas