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Malaga City vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Malaga City
Malaga City
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Ciudad Deportiva Torremolinos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Malaga City36%
×Draw30%
Mancha Real33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga City
1.06
Mancha Real
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 79 away

creates per match

Malaga City
0.96
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Malaga City
1.27
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Malaga City+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga City ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Malaga City or draw
67%
Malaga City or Mancha Real
70%
Draw or Mancha Real
64%

Winning margin

Malaga City wins by 2+
14%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Malaga City 1+ goals
65%
Malaga City 2+ goals
29%
Malaga City 3+ goals
9%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
63%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
26%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Malaga City (draw refunded)
52%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga City at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga City attack 0.96 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Malaga City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Malaga City scores more
36%
level
30%
Mancha Real scores more
33%

Malaga City at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Malaga City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malaga City vs Mancha Real

Malaga City beat Mancha Real 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Torremolinos in Torremolinos.