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Malaga City vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Malaga City
Malaga City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
4/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 30Campo Municipal Pepe Luís Bobadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Malaga City36%
×Draw28%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga City
1.21
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 110 away

creates per match

Malaga City
0.96
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.16

allows per match

Malaga City
1.27
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.45

finishing

Malaga City+0.00on par
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga City ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Malaga City or draw
64%
Malaga City or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
72%
Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
64%

Winning margin

Malaga City wins by 2+
15%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Malaga City 1+ goals
70%
Malaga City 2+ goals
34%
Malaga City 3+ goals
12%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
70%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
34%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Malaga City (draw refunded)
50%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga City at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga City attack 0.96 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Malaga City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Malaga City scores more
36%
level
28%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
36%

Malaga City at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Malaga City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Malaga City 1–2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat Malaga City 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Pepe Luís Bobadilla in Nerja.