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Malaga City vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Malaga City
Malaga City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Malaga City74%
×Draw16%
Atlético Melilla11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga City
2.57
Atlético Melilla
0.87

Malaga City creates 195% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 17 away

creates per match

Malaga City
0.96
Atlético Melilla
0.47

allows per match

Malaga City
1.27
Atlético Melilla
4.18

finishing

Malaga City+0.00on par
Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga City ↓

Atlético Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Malaga City or draw
89%
Malaga City or Atlético Melilla
84%
Draw or Atlético Melilla
26%

Winning margin

Malaga City wins by 2+
52%
Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Malaga City 1+ goals
92%
Malaga City 2+ goals
72%
Malaga City 3+ goals
47%
Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
58%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Malaga City (draw refunded)
87%
Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga City at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga City attack 0.96 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.57

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Malaga City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Malaga City scores more
74%
level
16%
Atlético Melilla scores more
11%

Malaga City at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Malaga City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaga City 1 – 1 Atlético Melilla

Malaga City and Atlético Melilla drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga in Torre del Mar.