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Malacky vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 3. liga - West 2020

Malacky
Malacky
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
10/22/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 12Futbalový štadión FC Malacky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malacky38%
×Draw27%
Lokomotíva Zvolen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malacky
1.27
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Malacky
1.54
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.33

allows per match

Malacky
1.11
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.00

finishing

Malacky+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malacky ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Malacky or draw
65%
Malacky or Lokomotíva Zvolen
73%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
62%

Winning margin

Malacky wins by 2+
17%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Malacky 1+ goals
72%
Malacky 2+ goals
36%
Malacky 3+ goals
14%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
70%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
34%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Malacky (draw refunded)
52%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malacky at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malacky attack 1.54 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.33 + Malacky defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Malacky scores more
38%
level
27%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
35%

Malacky at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Malacky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Malacky 0–3 Lokomotíva Zvolen

Lokomotíva Zvolen beat Malacky 3-0 in 3. liga - West on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FC Malacky in Malacky.