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Malacky vs Hamsik Academy — 3. liga - West 2020

Malacky
Malacky
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
8/12/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 2Futbalový štadión FC Malacky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Malacky42%
×Draw25%
Hamsik Academy33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malacky
1.48
Hamsik Academy
1.27

Malacky creates 17% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

Malacky
1.54
Hamsik Academy
1.44

allows per match

Malacky
1.11
Hamsik Academy
1.42

finishing

Malacky+0.00on par
Hamsik Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malacky ↓

Hamsik Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Malacky or draw
67%
Malacky or Hamsik Academy
75%
Draw or Hamsik Academy
58%

Winning margin

Malacky wins by 2+
20%
Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Malacky 1+ goals
77%
Malacky 2+ goals
43%
Malacky 3+ goals
19%
Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
72%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
36%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Malacky (draw refunded)
56%
Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malacky at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Hamsik Academy away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malacky attack 1.54 + Hamsik Academy defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hamsik Academy attack 1.44 + Malacky defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Malacky scores more
42%
level
25%
Hamsik Academy scores more
33%

Malacky at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malacky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malacky vs Hamsik Academy

Hamsik Academy beat Malacky 2-0 in 3. liga - West on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FC Malacky in Malacky.