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Malacky vs Galanta — 3. liga - West 2020

Malacky
Malacky
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Galanta
Galanta
9/29/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 9Futbalový štadión FC Malacky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Malacky44%
×Draw25%
Galanta31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malacky
1.51
Galanta
1.22

Malacky creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 85 away

creates per match

Malacky
1.54
Galanta
1.32

allows per match

Malacky
1.11
Galanta
1.48

finishing

Malacky+0.00on par
Galanta+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malacky ↓

Galanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Malacky or draw
69%
Malacky or Galanta
75%
Draw or Galanta
56%

Winning margin

Malacky wins by 2+
22%
Galanta wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Malacky 1+ goals
78%
Malacky 2+ goals
44%
Malacky 3+ goals
19%
Galanta 1+ goals
70%
Galanta 2+ goals
34%
Galanta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Malacky (draw refunded)
59%
Galanta (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malacky at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Galanta away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malacky attack 1.54 + Galanta defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.51

Galanta attack 1.32 + Malacky defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Malacky scores more
44%
level
25%
Galanta scores more
31%

Malacky at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Malacky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Malacky 1–0 Galanta

Malacky beat Galanta 1-0 in 3. liga - West on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FC Malacky in Malacky.