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Malacateco vs Mixco — Liga Nacional 2019

Malacateco
Malacateco
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mixco
Mixco
8/2/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 3Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Malacateco58%
×Draw25%
Mixco17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malacateco
1.60
Mixco
0.72

Malacateco creates 122% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 103 away

creates per match

Malacateco
1.55
Mixco
0.70

allows per match

Malacateco
0.74
Mixco
1.65

finishing

Malacateco+0.00on par
Mixco+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malacateco ↓

Mixco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malacateco or draw
83%
Malacateco or Mixco
75%
Draw or Mixco
42%

Winning margin

Malacateco wins by 2+
32%
Mixco wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Malacateco 1+ goals
80%
Malacateco 2+ goals
47%
Malacateco 3+ goals
22%
Mixco 1+ goals
51%
Mixco 2+ goals
16%
Mixco 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Malacateco (draw refunded)
78%
Mixco (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malacateco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.74 · 146 matches

Mixco away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.65 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malacateco attack 1.55 + Mixco defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mixco attack 0.70 + Malacateco defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Malacateco scores more
58%
level
25%
Mixco scores more
17%

Malacateco at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Malacateco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Malacateco 1–2 Mixco

Mixco beat Malacateco 2-1 in Liga Nacional on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía in Malacatán.