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Malacateco vs Achuapa — Liga Nacional 2019

Malacateco
Malacateco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Achuapa
Achuapa
2/21/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Malacateco60%
×Draw24%
Achuapa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malacateco
1.65
Achuapa
0.72

Malacateco creates 129% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 122 away

creates per match

Malacateco
1.55
Achuapa
0.70

allows per match

Malacateco
0.74
Achuapa
1.75

finishing

Malacateco+0.00on par
Achuapa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malacateco ↓

Achuapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Malacateco or draw
84%
Malacateco or Achuapa
76%
Draw or Achuapa
40%

Winning margin

Malacateco wins by 2+
33%
Achuapa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Malacateco 1+ goals
81%
Malacateco 2+ goals
49%
Malacateco 3+ goals
23%
Achuapa 1+ goals
51%
Achuapa 2+ goals
16%
Achuapa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Malacateco (draw refunded)
79%
Achuapa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malacateco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.74 · 146 matches

Achuapa away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.75 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malacateco attack 1.55 + Achuapa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Achuapa attack 0.70 + Malacateco defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Malacateco scores more
60%
level
24%
Achuapa scores more
16%

Malacateco at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Malacateco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malacateco vs Achuapa

Malacateco and Achuapa drew 1-1 in Liga Nacional on February 21, 2026.