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Maksatransport vs Pärnu — Cup 2020

Maksatransport
Maksatransportadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Pärnu
Pärnu
7/31/2024CupCup · Round of 64Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maksatransport64%
×Draw17%
Pärnu19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maksatransport
2.92
Pärnu
1.58

Maksatransport creates 85% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Maksatransport
1.50
Pärnu
0.33

allows per match

Maksatransport
2.83
Pärnu
4.33

finishing

Maksatransport+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maksatransport ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Maksatransport or draw
81%
Maksatransport or Pärnu
83%
Draw or Pärnu
36%

Winning margin

Maksatransport wins by 2+
44%
Pärnu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Maksatransport 1+ goals
94%
Maksatransport 2+ goals
78%
Maksatransport 3+ goals
55%
Pärnu 1+ goals
79%
Pärnu 2+ goals
47%
Pärnu 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Maksatransport (draw refunded)
77%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maksatransport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Pärnu away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maksatransport attack 1.50 + Pärnu defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Pärnu attack 0.33 + Maksatransport defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Maksatransport scores more
64%
level
17%
Pärnu scores more
19%

Maksatransport at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Maksatransport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Maksatransport 3–1 Pärnu

Maksatransport beat Pärnu 3-1 in Cup on July 31, 2024.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.