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Maksatransport vs Loo — Cup 2020

Maksatransport
Maksatransportadvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Loo
Loo
7/29/2023CupCup · Round of 64Nike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maksatransport61%
×Draw17%
Loo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maksatransport
2.92
Loo
1.75

Maksatransport creates 67% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Maksatransport
1.50
Loo
0.67

allows per match

Maksatransport
2.83
Loo
4.33

finishing

Maksatransport+0.00on par
Loo+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maksatransport ↓

Loo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Maksatransport or draw
78%
Maksatransport or Loo
83%
Draw or Loo
39%

Winning margin

Maksatransport wins by 2+
41%
Loo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Maksatransport 1+ goals
94%
Maksatransport 2+ goals
78%
Maksatransport 3+ goals
55%
Loo 1+ goals
83%
Loo 2+ goals
52%
Loo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Maksatransport (draw refunded)
73%
Loo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maksatransport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Loo away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maksatransport attack 1.50 + Loo defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Loo attack 0.67 + Maksatransport defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Maksatransport scores more
61%
level
17%
Loo scores more
22%

Maksatransport at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Maksatransport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maksatransport vs Loo

Maksatransport beat Loo 5-1 in Cup on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Nike Arena in Tallinn.