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Maksatransport vs Läänemaa Haapsalu — Cup 2020

Maksatransport
Maksatransport
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Läänemaa Haapsalu
Läänemaa Haapsaluadvanced
8/29/2023CupCup · Round of 32Nike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maksatransport17%
×Draw16%
Läänemaa Haapsalu66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maksatransport
1.46
Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.92

Läänemaa Haapsalu creates 100% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Maksatransport
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.00

allows per match

Maksatransport
2.83
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.43

finishing

Maksatransport+0.00on par
Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maksatransport ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Maksatransport or draw
34%
Maksatransport or Läänemaa Haapsalu
84%
Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu
83%

Winning margin

Maksatransport wins by 2+
7%
Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Maksatransport 1+ goals
77%
Maksatransport 2+ goals
43%
Maksatransport 3+ goals
18%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals
94%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals
78%
Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Maksatransport (draw refunded)
21%
Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maksatransport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maksatransport attack 1.50 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 3.00 + Maksatransport defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Maksatransport scores more
17%
level
16%
Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more
66%

Läänemaa Haapsalu at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Läänemaa Haapsalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maksatransport vs Läänemaa Haapsalu

Läänemaa Haapsalu beat Maksatransport 3-0 in Cup on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Nike Arena in Tallinn.