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Makkabi vs Tasmania Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Makkabi
Makkabi
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
I. Ceesay 66'
K. Coleman 38'
G. Kamdem 10'
Y. Labbouz 90+2'
5/18/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Julius-Hirsch-Sportanlage 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Makkabi48%
×Draw22%
Tasmania Berlin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Makkabi
1.92
Tasmania Berlin
1.48

Makkabi creates 30% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 66 away

creates per match

Makkabi
2.18
Tasmania Berlin
1.70

allows per match

Makkabi
1.25
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

finishing

Makkabi+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makkabi ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Makkabi or draw
70%
Makkabi or Tasmania Berlin
78%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
52%

Winning margin

Makkabi wins by 2+
27%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Makkabi 1+ goals
85%
Makkabi 2+ goals
57%
Makkabi 3+ goals
30%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
77%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
43%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Makkabi (draw refunded)
62%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makkabi at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makkabi attack 2.18 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + Makkabi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Makkabi scores more
48%
level
22%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
30%

Makkabi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Makkabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
G. Kamdem
38'
K. Coleman
66'
I. Ceesay
90+2'
Y. Labbouz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Makkabi vs Tasmania Berlin

Makkabi beat Tasmania Berlin 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on May 18, 2025.

Goals: G. Kamdem (10'), K. Coleman (38'), I. Ceesay (66'), Y. Labbouz (90+2').

The match was played at Julius-Hirsch-Sportanlage 1 in Berlin.