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Makkabi vs Neustrelitz — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Makkabi
Makkabi
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Neustrelitz
Neustrelitz
3/16/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 21Julius-Hirsch-Sportanlage Kunstrasenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Makkabi50%
×Draw22%
Neustrelitz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Makkabi
1.91
Neustrelitz
1.36

Makkabi creates 40% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 81 away

creates per match

Makkabi
2.18
Neustrelitz
1.47

allows per match

Makkabi
1.25
Neustrelitz
1.64

finishing

Makkabi+0.00on par
Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makkabi ↓

Neustrelitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Makkabi or draw
73%
Makkabi or Neustrelitz
78%
Draw or Neustrelitz
50%

Winning margin

Makkabi wins by 2+
28%
Neustrelitz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Makkabi 1+ goals
85%
Makkabi 2+ goals
57%
Makkabi 3+ goals
30%
Neustrelitz 1+ goals
74%
Neustrelitz 2+ goals
39%
Neustrelitz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Makkabi (draw refunded)
65%
Neustrelitz (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makkabi at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

Neustrelitz away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makkabi attack 2.18 + Neustrelitz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.91

Neustrelitz attack 1.47 + Makkabi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Makkabi scores more
50%
level
22%
Neustrelitz scores more
27%

Makkabi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Makkabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Makkabi 3–2 Neustrelitz

Makkabi beat Neustrelitz 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Julius-Hirsch-Sportanlage Kunstrasenplatz 1 in Berlin.