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Makkabi vs Dynamo Schwerin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Makkabi
Makkabi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dynamo Schwerin
Dynamo Schwerin
8/31/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 4Julius-Hirsch-Sportanlage 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Makkabi58%
×Draw20%
Dynamo Schwerin22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Makkabi
2.24
Dynamo Schwerin
1.31

Makkabi creates 71% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

creates per match

Makkabi
2.18
Dynamo Schwerin
1.36

allows per match

Makkabi
1.25
Dynamo Schwerin
2.30

finishing

Makkabi+0.00on par
Dynamo Schwerin+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makkabi ↓

Dynamo Schwerin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Makkabi or draw
78%
Makkabi or Dynamo Schwerin
80%
Draw or Dynamo Schwerin
42%

Winning margin

Makkabi wins by 2+
36%
Dynamo Schwerin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Makkabi 1+ goals
89%
Makkabi 2+ goals
65%
Makkabi 3+ goals
38%
Dynamo Schwerin 1+ goals
73%
Dynamo Schwerin 2+ goals
38%
Dynamo Schwerin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Makkabi (draw refunded)
73%
Dynamo Schwerin (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makkabi at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

Dynamo Schwerin away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.30 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makkabi attack 2.18 + Dynamo Schwerin defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.24

Dynamo Schwerin attack 1.36 + Makkabi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Makkabi scores more
58%
level
20%
Dynamo Schwerin scores more
22%

Makkabi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Makkabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Makkabi vs Dynamo Schwerin

Makkabi beat Dynamo Schwerin 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Julius-Hirsch-Sportanlage 1 in Berlin.