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Makkabi vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Makkabi
Makkabi
CANC
13:00
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
3/10/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 20Julius-Hirsch-Sportanlage 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Makkabi52%
×Draw22%
CFC Hertha26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Makkabi
1.90
CFC Hertha
1.27

Makkabi creates 50% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 44 away

creates per match

Makkabi
2.18
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

Makkabi
1.25
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

Makkabi+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makkabi ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Makkabi or draw
74%
Makkabi or CFC Hertha
78%
Draw or CFC Hertha
48%

Winning margin

Makkabi wins by 2+
30%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Makkabi 1+ goals
85%
Makkabi 2+ goals
56%
Makkabi 3+ goals
29%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
72%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
36%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Makkabi (draw refunded)
67%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makkabi at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makkabi attack 2.18 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.90

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + Makkabi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Makkabi scores more
52%
level
22%
CFC Hertha scores more
26%

Makkabi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Makkabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Makkabi vs CFC Hertha — Match Preview

Makkabi face CFC Hertha on March 10, 2024 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Makkabi host CFC Hertha at Julius-Hirsch-Sportanlage 1.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.