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Makedonikos Neapolis vs PAOK II — League #494 2026

Makedonikos Neapolis
Makedonikos Neapolis
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
PAOK II
PAOK II
6/17/2023League #494League #494 · Group A - 30Gipedo Neas Efkarpias Makedonikou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Makedonikos Neapolis41%
×Draw24%
PAOK II35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Makedonikos Neapolis
1.62
PAOK II
1.46

Makedonikos Neapolis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Makedonikos Neapolis
1.67
PAOK II
1.43

allows per match

Makedonikos Neapolis
1.50
PAOK II
1.57

finishing

Makedonikos Neapolis+0.00on par
PAOK II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonikos Neapolis ↓

PAOK II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Makedonikos Neapolis or draw
65%
Makedonikos Neapolis or PAOK II
76%
Draw or PAOK II
59%

Winning margin

Makedonikos Neapolis wins by 2+
21%
PAOK II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Makedonikos Neapolis 1+ goals
80%
Makedonikos Neapolis 2+ goals
48%
Makedonikos Neapolis 3+ goals
22%
PAOK II 1+ goals
77%
PAOK II 2+ goals
43%
PAOK II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Makedonikos Neapolis (draw refunded)
55%
PAOK II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonikos Neapolis at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

PAOK II away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonikos Neapolis attack 1.67 + PAOK II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

PAOK II attack 1.43 + Makedonikos Neapolis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Makedonikos Neapolis scores more
41%
level
24%
PAOK II scores more
35%

Makedonikos Neapolis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Makedonikos Neapolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Makedonikos Neapolis vs PAOK II

Makedonikos Neapolis beat PAOK II 3-1 in League #494 on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Gipedo Neas Efkarpias Makedonikou in Thessaloníki.