Makedonija GjP 0–2 Struga: Result & Stats

Makedonija GjP

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Struga

11/4/2025

First League · Round 12Stadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Makedonija GjP39%

×Draw28%

Struga33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Makedonija GjPExpected goals in this matchStruga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.11

Makedonija GjP

1.22

Struga

1.11

Makedonija GjP creates 10% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 106 away

1.36

creates per match

1.19

1.03

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Makedonija GjP

1.36

Struga

1.19

allows per match

Makedonija GjP

1.03

Struga

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Struga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonija GjP ↓

Struga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Makedonija GjP or draw

67%

Makedonija GjP or Struga

72%

Draw or Struga

61%

Winning margin

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

17%

Struga wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

70%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

34%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

12%

Struga 1+ goals

67%

Struga 2+ goals

30%

Struga 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

54%

Struga (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonija GjP at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Struga away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonija GjP attack 1.36 + Struga defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Struga attack 1.19 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Makedonija GjP scores more

39%

level

28%

Struga scores more

33%

Makedonija GjP at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Makedonija GjP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff