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Majosi vs Szekszárd — NB III - Southwest 2019

Majosi
Majosi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Szekszárd
Szekszárd
11/3/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 14Sport úti Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Majosi57%
×Draw20%
Szekszárd23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Majosi
2.28
Szekszárd
1.41

Majosi creates 62% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Majosi
2.07
Szekszárd
1.04

allows per match

Majosi
1.78
Szekszárd
2.49

finishing

Majosi+0.00on par
Szekszárd+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Majosi ↓

Szekszárd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Majosi or draw
77%
Majosi or Szekszárd
80%
Draw or Szekszárd
43%

Winning margin

Majosi wins by 2+
35%
Szekszárd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Majosi 1+ goals
90%
Majosi 2+ goals
66%
Majosi 3+ goals
39%
Szekszárd 1+ goals
76%
Szekszárd 2+ goals
41%
Szekszárd 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Majosi (draw refunded)
71%
Szekszárd (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Majosi at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

Szekszárd away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Majosi attack 2.07 + Szekszárd defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.28

Szekszárd attack 1.04 + Majosi defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Majosi scores more
57%
level
20%
Szekszárd scores more
23%

Majosi at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Majosi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Majosi 2–1 Szekszárd

Majosi beat Szekszárd 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sport úti Pálya in Bonyhád.