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Majosi vs Nagykanizsai ULE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Majosi
Majosi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
5/26/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 30Majosi SE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Majosi36%
×Draw22%
Nagykanizsai ULE42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Majosi
1.71
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 111 away

creates per match

Majosi
2.07
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.95

allows per match

Majosi
1.78
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.36

finishing

Majosi+0.00on par
Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Majosi ↓

Nagykanizsai ULE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Majosi or draw
58%
Majosi or Nagykanizsai ULE
78%
Draw or Nagykanizsai ULE
64%

Winning margin

Majosi wins by 2+
18%
Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Majosi 1+ goals
82%
Majosi 2+ goals
51%
Majosi 3+ goals
24%
Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
84%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
55%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Majosi (draw refunded)
46%
Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Majosi at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

Nagykanizsai ULE away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Majosi attack 2.07 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.71

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 1.95 + Majosi defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Majosi scores more
36%
level
22%
Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
42%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Majosi 0–1 Nagykanizsai ULE

Nagykanizsai ULE beat Majosi 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Majosi SE Sporttelep in Bonyhád-Majos.