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Majosi vs Főnix — NB III - Southwest 2019

Majosi
Majosi
FT
3 – 0
Főnix
Főnix
9/29/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 9Sport úti Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Majosi63%
×Draw17%
Főnix20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Majosi
2.83
Főnix
1.59

Majosi creates 78% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Majosi
2.07
Főnix
1.40

allows per match

Majosi
1.78
Főnix
3.60

finishing

Majosi+0.00on par
Főnix+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Majosi ↓

Főnix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Majosi or draw
80%
Majosi or Főnix
83%
Draw or Főnix
37%

Winning margin

Majosi wins by 2+
42%
Főnix wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Majosi 1+ goals
94%
Majosi 2+ goals
77%
Majosi 3+ goals
53%
Főnix 1+ goals
80%
Főnix 2+ goals
47%
Főnix 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Majosi (draw refunded)
76%
Főnix (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Majosi at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

Főnix away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Majosi attack 2.07 + Főnix defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.83

Főnix attack 1.40 + Majosi defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Majosi scores more
63%
level
17%
Főnix scores more
20%

Majosi at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Majosi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Majosi 3–0 Főnix

Majosi beat Főnix 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Sport úti Pálya in Bonyhád.